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上半年度中国中央空调行业发展报告

来源:北京加固公司 点击量: 日期:2011-10-07

第一篇 宏观运行分析

一、宏观经济

     “SHANGBANNIAN,MIANDUIFUZADUOBIANDEGUOJIXINGSHIHEGUONEIJINGJIYUNXINGCHUXIANDEXINQINGKUANGXINWENTI,DANGZHONGYANG、GUOWUYUANJIANCHISHISHIJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEHEWENJIANDEHUOBIZHENGCE,BUDUANJIAQIANGHEGAISHANHONGGUANDIAOKONG,JINGJIYUNXINGZONGTILIANGHAO,JIXUCHAOZHEHONGGUANDIAOKONGYUQIFANGXIANGFAZHAN。”7YUE,GUOJIATONGJIJUTONGGUOGUANFANGWANGZHANFABULESHANGBANNIANGUOMINJINGJIYUNXINGQINGKUANG,GUOJIATONGJIJUXINWENFAYANRENSHENGLAIYUNYONG“ZONGTILIANGHAO”LAIPINGJIAGUOQUDEBANNIAN。

     CHUBUCESUAN,SHANGBANNIANGUONEISHENGCHANZONGZHI204459YIYUAN,ANKEBIJIAGEJISUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG9.6%;QIZHONG,YIJIDUZENGZHANG9.7%,ERJIDUZENGZHANG9.5%。FENCHANYEKAN,DIYICHANYEZENGJIAZHI15700YIYUAN,ZENGZHANG3.2%;DIERCHANYEZENGJIAZHI102178YIYUAN,ZENGZHANG11.0%;DISANCHANYEZENGJIAZHI86581YIYUAN,ZENGZHANG9.2%。CONGHUANBIKAN,ERJIDUGUONEISHENGCHANZONGZHIZENGZHANG2.2%。QUANGUOGUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBIZENGZHANG14.3%。FENXINGYEKAN,39GEDALEIXINGYEJUNSHIXIANZENGZHANG。FENDIQUKAN,DONGBUDIQUTONGBIZENGZHANG12.4%,ZHONGBUDIQUZENGZHANG17.8%,XIBUDIQUZENGZHANG17.3%。SHANGBANNIAN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYECHANXIAOLVDADAO97.8%,BISHANGNIANTONGQITIGAO0.1GEBAIFENDIAN。6YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBIZENGZHANG15.1%,HUANBIZENGZHANG1.48%。1-5YUEFEN,QUANGUOGUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYESHIXIANLIRUN19203YIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG27.9%。ZAI39GEDALEIXINGYEZHONG,37GEXINGYELIRUNTONGBIZENGZHANG,2GEXINGYETONGBIXIAJIANG。1-5YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYEZHUYINGYEWUCHENGBENZHANZHUYINGYEWUSHOURUDEBIZHONGWEI84.7%,BIYIJIDUTIGAO0.3GEBAIFENDIAN。5YUEFEN,GUIMOYISHANGGONGYEQIYEZHUYINGYEWUSHOURULIRUNLVWEI6.2%。

    SHANGBANNIAN,GUDINGZICHANTOUZI(BUHANNONGHU)124567YIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG25.6%。FENCHANYEKAN,DIYICHANYETOUZITONGBIZENGZHANG20.6%,DIERCHANYETOUZIZENGZHANG27.1%,DISANCHANYETOUZIZENGZHANG24.7%。FENDIQUKAN,DONGBUDIQUTOUZITONGBIZENGZHANG22.6%ZHONGBUDIQUZENGZHANG31.0%,XIBUDIQUZENGZHANG29.2%。CONGHUANBIKAN,6YUEFENGUDINGZICHANTOUZI(BUHANNONGHU)XIAJIANG1.04%。CONGQUANGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOSHICHANGSHANGBANNIANDEYUNXINGBIAOXIANLAIKAN,YEYUGUOJIAHONGGUANJINGJIDEBIAOXIANYIZHI,ZHONGXIBUDIQUZAIZONGTIZENGZHANGSUDUSHANGMINGXIANYOUYUHUADONG、HUABEI、HUANANSHICHANG,ERYUECHENGSHUDESHICHANGYUEBIAOXIANCHUZENGFUFANGHUANDEQUSHI。

     上半年,全国房地产开发投资26250亿元,同比增长32.9%。其中,住宅投资18641亿元,增长36.1%。全国商品房销售面积44419万平方米,同比增长12.9%。其中,住宅销售面积增长12.1%。上半年,房地产开发企业本年资金来源40991亿元,同比增长21.6%。6月份,全国房地产开发景气指数为101.75。总体而言,房地产开发投资仍保持着较快的增长速度,也因此,中央空调行业伴随着房地产市场的快速增长而水涨船高,表现在数据上,2011年上半年度,全国中央空调市场总量约300亿元,创造了新的规模纪录。然而另一方面,房地产投资增速已经放缓,显然,国家连续的宏观政策已经对房地产市场起到了实际的调控作用。在国家坚定的楼市政策调控下,房地产市场投资增速放缓仍将继续成为本年度内的特点,这也将逐渐在中央空调行业中得以体现。

二、制冷剂

     CONG2010NIANCHUZHIJIN,R22、R134aHER410ADENGJIZHONGZHUYAOYONGYUKONGDIAO、REBENGRESHUIJI、BINGXIANGDEZHILENGJIGONGQIUCHUYUHENBUWENDINGDEZHUANGTAI。SHOUDAOKONGDIAOHEBINGXIANGCHANXIAOLIANGCHIXUZENGZHANG、BIANPINKONGDIAOSHICHANGFEISUFAZHAN、ZHILENGJIYUANLIAOGONGYINGJINZHANGYIJIFADAGUOJIAZHUBUGUANTINGR22SHENGCHANXIANDENGDUOZHONGYINSUDEYINGXIANG,ZHILENGJIGONGYINGQUJIN,ZHEISHIDEJINYINIANDUOLAIZHUYAOZHILENGJIDESHICHANGJIAGEZHENGTISHANGYANG。ZONGTILAIKAN,BUTONGZHILENGJIDESHICHANGQINGKUANGYEGEBUXIANGTONG。R22YUANLIAO——SANLVJIAWANGONGYINGJINZHANGDEZHUANGKUANGZHENGZAIHUANJIE,2011NIANDUNEIZHONGGUOSANLVJIAWANSHENGCHANZHUANGZHIGAOSUKUORONG,SUIZHEXINZENGCHANNENGDESHIFANG,SANLVJIAWANGONGYINGZHUJIANCHONGZU,JIAGEYIJINGCHUXIANHUILUO。ERR134aDEJIAGEZECONG2011NIAN1YUEDEMEIDUN5.5WANYUANZHANGDAO5YUEFENDE7.3WANYUANZUOYOU,YOUYUR134aHAIWAIBUFENCHANNENGZHUANCHANHUOBANQIAN,ZHISHIQUANQIUCHANNENGXIAJIANG,ZAIJIASHANGR134aJISHUNANDUJIAOGAO,GUONEIZHUANGZHIKAICHEBUWEN,KUOCHANBUYI,CONGERYINFALER134aMINGXIANDEGONGXUQUEKOU。YINCI,WEILAIR134aDESHICHANGXUQIULIANGHAICUNZAIYIDINGBIANSHU。TANQINGZHILENGJIZAIJINNIANSHANGBANNIANZHONGBIAOXIANDEXIANGDUIHUOYUE,YIR290WEIDAIBIAODETANQINGZHILENGJIYIJINGKAISHIPILIANGYINGYONGYUJIAYONGKONGDIAOZHIZHONG,WEILEMANZUSHICHANGDUITANQINGZHILENGJIDEXUQIU,GECHANGSHANGDOUZAIJIJIKUODACHANNENG。ERZHUYAOYINGYONGYUJIAYONGKONGDIAOJIDUOLIANJIDER410AZHILENGJIXUQIUDAZENG,YUANYINZAIYU:SHOUXIAN,ZHONGGUOKONGDIAONENGXIAOBIAOZHUNDECHUTAI,JIASULEKONGDIAOGAONENGXIAOJIXINGDEZHUANHUASUDU;QICI,JIADIANXIAXIANG、YIJIUHUANXINHEJIENENGCHANPINHUIMINGONGCHENGDENGGUOJIAZHENGCE,JIDADITUIDONGLEZHONGGUOR410AKONGDIAONEIXIAOSHICHANGDEFANRONG;ZUIHOU,R410AKONGDIAOCHUKOUZENGJIA,MEIGUOKONGDIAOSHICHANGCONG2010NIANKAISHIQUANBUSHIYONGR410AZHILENGJI,YIXIEDONGNANYAGUOJIADER410AKONGDIAOSHICHANGYEKAISHIQIDONG。

     WEILAI,JINGUANSUIZHEXINJIANHEKUOJIANDEZHILENGJICHANNENGBUDUANSHIFANG,ZHILENGJIDEGONGYINGYALIJIANGYOUSUOHUANJIE,DANSHI,KENENGSUIZHIERLAIDE“DIANHUANG”、YUANCAILIAOJIAGESHANGZHANGDENGRANGZHILENGJIDEGONGQIUZHUANGKUANGHENNANYULIAO。

三、铜

     2011NIANSHANGBANNIANTONGSHIDIEDANGQIFU,FANFUZHENDANG,JICICHONGGAOHUILUO,ZUIZHONGYI0.64%DEDIEFUXIAOFUSHOUDIE。XIANHUOTONGJIANIANCHUZAI69800YUAN/DUN,NIANZHONGDIEZHI69358YUAN/DUN。

     JINRU1YUEFENKAISHIYOUYUSHANGJIAKANHAOJIEHOUSHICHANGZHANGSHISHICHANGBEITUISHENGZOUGAO,CHIXUPANSHENGZHI2YUEZHONGXUNDE74900-75030YUAN/DUN;HOUBANDUANSHIJIANYOUYUXIAOFEIDIMISHICHANGKAISHIZHENDANGXIAHUAZHIYIJIDUDEZUIDIWEI68600YUAN/DUNZUOYOU,SUIZHERIBENWEIJIDEHUANJIEYIJIXIANHUOSHICHANGXUQIUZENGJIA,3YUEXIAXUNTONGJIAYEHUIGUIDAO72000YUAN/DUNYISHANG,CIHOUYOUYUOUZHOUZHAIWUWEIJIZHONGXIAN,GUONEIHUOBIJINSUOZHENGCEDAYAXIANHUOTONGJIADESHENGSHI,JIASHANGXUQIUYUQIBUQIANG,3YUEMOJIAGEZAIDUHUILUOZHI70500YUAN/DUNFUJIN。ERJIDUKAISHITONGJIAFANFUZHENDANG,SHANGXIAPANZHENG。SUIRANTONGJIADONGDANGPINFAN,DANJIUZHENGGESHANGBANNIANJINSHUDEBIAOXIANLAIKAN,TONGSHIDEDIAOZHENGFUDUSHIZUIXIAODE,TONGSHI,CONG5YUEZHONGXIAXUNKAISHI,BUFENYELIANQIYESHENZHIKUANGSHANDOUYIJIEDAOXIANDIANXIANCHANTONGZHI,ZHEIYINGXIANGLEJINGLIANTONGDECHANLIANG,JIASHANGGUONEIKUCUNJIANSHAODAOZHITONGGONGYINGDUANQUE,GONGYINGWENTIDUIQITONGSHANGZHANGQIZHICHENGZUOYONG,TONGJIAXIANGDUIBIAOXIANWENDING。

     今年电力行业定单充足,家电行业也比预期的要好,在以上两个行业的带动下,国内铜的消费就会增长在7%以上,对铜价形成很大支撑,因此下半年铜价仍不乏震荡走高的可能。
 

第二篇 微观运行分析

     SHUOMING:“2011NIANDUSHANGBANNIANZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOKONGDIAOXINGYEFAZHANFENXIBAOGAO”SHI《NUANTONGKONGDIAOZIXUN》SHOUCIFABUDEJIYUBANNIANDUSHICHANGDEFAZHANFENXIBAOGAO,YOUYUQUEFAYIWANGDEBANNIANDUSHUJU,YINCI,ZAIBENBAOGAONEIJIANGBUBAOKUOZENGZHANGLVDUIBIDESHUJUJITUBIAO。ZONGTIERYAN,BENBAOGAOYITUBIAOWEIZHU,WENZICHANSHUWEIFU,JIANYAOGAIKUOSHANGBANNIANDUQUANGUOSHICHANGDEZONGTIFAZHANTEZHENG、PINPAIGEJUJICHANPINGEJU。


一、品牌格局分析

     KAIJULIANGHAO——SHANGBANNIANDUZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOSHICHANGDEFAZHANMINGXIANCHUANDICHUZHEIYANGDEXINHAO。GUOQUDEBANNIANZHONG,QUANGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOSHICHANGZONGRONGLIANGYUEWEI300YIYUAN,ERQUNIANQUANNIANDUZHONGYANGKONGDIAOSHICHANGZONGRONGLIANGWEIJIN450YIYUAN。JINGUANBUNENGJICHUYIGEZHIGUANDETONGBISHUJU,RANERJIANGSHANGBANNIANDUZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOSHICHANGDEZONGTIGUIMOYUQUNIANQUANNIANDUXINGYEZONGTIGUIMOXIANGBI,JIKEYIDECHUQINGXIDEJIELUN。

     GENJUQIYEDEBUTONGSHUXING,WOMENJIANGXINGYEZHONGDEZHULIUQIYEFENCHENGLIUDALEI,BAOKUOWUDAMEIZIQIYE、LENGSHUIJIZUQIYE、GUONEIJIADIANXIQIYE、RIHANDUOLIANJIZUQIYE、SHUIDIYUANREBENGQIYE、XIUHUALIJIZUQIYE。SHUJUXIANSHI:SHICHANGZHANYOULVCHAOGUO10%DEQIYEBAOKUODAJIN、MEIDE、GELI,DAJIN、MEIDE、GELIYIJINGGOUCHENGZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOXINGYEDEDIYITIDUI。QIZHONG,DAJINBANNIANDUXIAOSHOUCHAOGUO40YIYUAN,JIXUZAIZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOXINGYEZHONGLINGPAO。MEIDE、GELIBANNIANDUXIAOSHOUJUNCHAOGUO30YIYUAN,MEIDEZEZAIBANCHENGSHICHANGZHONGCHENGWEIGUONEIQIYEDELINGTOUYANG。

     MEIZISIDALENGSHUIJIZUQIYEYUEKE、KAILI、TELING、MAIKEWEIERJIXUWENJUDIERTIDUI,TAMENZAILENGSHUIJIZUSHICHANGZHONGDEYOUSHIRENGRANSHIFENMINGXIAN,BINGQIEZAIDUANQINEINANYIBEIYUYUE。TONGYANGSHENCHUDIERTIDUIDEHAIYOUHAIXINRILI,ZUOWEIZHUANYEBIANPINDUOLIANJIZUQIYE,HAIXINRILIZAIZHUANYEHUAFAZHANZHANLVEXIABAOCHILEKUAISUDEZENGZHANG。

     ZONGHEERYAN,YUWANGNIANXINGYEFAZHANSUOXIANGTONGDESHI,YILIXINJI、LUOGANJI、MOKUAIJIWEIZHUDELENGSHUIJIZUHEBIANPINDUOLIANJIZU、CHANGGUIDANYUANJIZUGOUCHENGDESANDALEICHANPINRENGRANSHIZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOXINGYEZHONGZUIZHONGYAODECHANPINXINGSHI,ZAIZHEISANDALEICHANPINSHICHANGZHONGBIAOXIANYOUYIDEQIYEGOUCHENGLEXINGYEZHULIUQIYEDEZHONGJIANLILIANG。

     分不同类别企业的市场占有率图来看,五大美资品牌中约克仍在规模上占有明显优势,开利、特灵、麦克维尔几乎不分伯仲。传统冷水机组品牌中,天加依旧握有领先优势,此外,盾安、广州日立、国祥、EK、申菱等企业构成了国内传统冷水机组企业的重要力量,过去的半年里,他们继续在规模化道路上深入发展。从国内家电系企业的占有率对比来看,包括海尔、格力、美的、志高、奥克斯、TCL在内的国内家电系企业已经在中国中央空调行业中扮演无可替代的角色。其中,美的与格力已经跻身中国中央空调空调行业前三甲,并稳稳占据了这一位置,而凭借集团优势以及销售网络、渠道优势,国内其他家电系企业也正在进入规模化发展的新阶段。日韩系多联机组企业逐渐形成两级分化的态势,除了大金仍然一枝独秀之外,包括海信日立、东芝、三菱电机、三菱重工、三星等在内的品牌市场表现活跃,因此呈现出相对快速、稳定的发展势头,相反,尤其随着国内家电企业在多联机组市场上快速壮大,以及一些新品牌的进入,部分专业化多联机组企业正在陆续丧失掌控市场的能力。在专业水地源热泵企业的市场占有率对比图中则是另外一番景象,除了克莱门特仍然拥有领先和颇具规模的市场份额之外,其他专业水地源热泵企业仍然为寻找一条规模化发展的道路而努力。相比之下,在由专业水地源热泵企业开辟出的水地源热泵市场上,目前享有更多市场成果的仍然是规模型企业。而在溴化锂品牌的市场占有率对比中,所有企业的占有率相对较为稳定,这与溴化锂市场竞争强度相对较低不无关系。

二、区域格局


各区域市场占有率对比反映的是不同的区域市场在全国市场中重要程度的差别,而从区域市场占有率的阶段性变化中,亦可以反映出某区域市场发展速度及成熟度的变化情况。比如,在华东市场各区域占有率图中,上海市场占有率相比2010年度有明显下降,这说明上海市场发展的成熟程度较高,饱和程度也相对较高,而江苏、浙江、安徽市场较为稳定。

     由于整体市场仍然在快速稳定的增长轨道中发展,因此总体而言,绝大多数区域市场仍然保持着与以往相同的步调。此外,区域市场的发展仍然遵循了区域经济的发展特点,即在国家重点政策支持的中西部区域,其中央空调市场的发展也明显表现出步伐相对较快的特征。

三、产品格局

对于上半年市场的产品格局分析,2011半年度报告延续了以往的产品划分方式,与以往的年度报告不同的是,由于时间有限,本报告未对各类产品进行细分,而是将离心机组、风冷螺杆机组、水冷螺杆机组、模块机组统一归为冷水机组,其他冷水机组如水地源热泵和溴化锂则仍单独列出。

     CONG2011NIANSHANGBANNIANDUGEDALEICHANPINDEZHANYOULVQINGKUANGYU2010NIANDUDUIBILAIKAN,ZONGTIERYAN,GEDALEICHANPINDEZHANYOULVQINGKUANGJIAOWEIWENDING,BODONGPINGHUAN。BUGUOQIZHONGRENGRANBIAOXIANCHUZHIDEGUANZHUDEBIANHUA:DUOLIANJIZUHESHUIDIYUANREBENGDEZHENGTIZHANYOULVJUNLVEYOUXIAJIANG,DANYUANJIZUDEZHANYOULVZEYOUMINGXIANSHANGSHENG,ZHEIYIXIANXIANGSHUOMINGLEYIJINGCHENGWEIZHONGGUOZHONGYANGKONGDIAOXINGYEZUIZHONGYAOCHANPINXINGSHIDEDUOLIANJIZUYIJINGDADAOLEYIDINGDESHICHANGGAOFENG,SHUIDIYUANREBENGCHANPINJINGLILEGAOSUZENGZHANGZHIHOUZHUJIANGUIYULENGJING,ERZAIGUONEIJIADIANXIQIYEGELI、MEIDEDENGQIYEDETUIDONGXIA,DANYUANJIZUDAFUFANGLIANG,ZENGZHANGYOUWEIXUNSU。

     各区域不同产品的占有率情况也在很大程度上反映了产品的区域分布特征。冷水机组产品通常在越为发达和成熟的区域市场中占比就越低,从数据上可以看出,包括江浙沪在内的华东市场冷水机组产品占比平均仅有20%左右,相反,包括西南、西北、东北、华中在内的中西部区域市场,其冷水机组产品占比平均约为30%。从冷水机组市场品牌占有率情况来看,以约克、开利、特灵、麦克维尔四大美资品牌组成的阵营,毫无悬念仍旧把持着冷水机组市场中最大的份额,其中约克继续在冷水机组市场中独占鳌头。而经过几年的发展,国内家电系企业美的和格力在规模上进一步缩小了与领先品牌的差距,比如,上半年度中格力在包括广东、山东、安徽等区域市场中连续获得了众多大型甚至超大型项目的认可,为这些项目提供了具有自主知识产权的离心机组、螺杆机组等等冷水机组设备。此外,一大批国内传统冷水机组企业已经发展成为冷水机组市场中的主要力量,包括天加、盾安、国祥、堃霖、扬子、瀚艺、欧威尔、汇中、台佳、澳柯玛等等。

相比冷水机组的区域特征,多联机组大体上与之相反,其特征表现为越是欠发达和仍不成熟的区域市场,多联机组产品的占有率就相对较小。数据显示,华东区域继续承担着全国最重要的多联机组市场的地位,而成熟度相对较高的北京、广东、山东市场上,多联机组均占有了较高的市场份额。反之,中西部地区的多联机组产品市场份额则较小。从多联机组市场品牌占有率对比情况来看,美的已经在销售规模上成为仅次于大金的品牌,另一个国内家电系品牌格力亦有不俗表现,上半年度中,格力紧随海信日立之后成为另一支不容忽视的力量。此外,传统的日韩系多联机组品牌大多仍在多联机组市场中表现优异,无疑,日韩系多联机组品牌是这个市场中最为重要的组成力量。

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     末端产品作为主机设备的配套,其整体发展特征与主机设备基本保持一致,因此区域发展特征不做赘述。而需要指出的是,近几年内专业型的末端产品生产企业逐渐在丧失市场优势,相反,传统的主机制造企业反而更能掌控末端产品市场。究其原因,末端产品不存在进入门槛,在大多时候价格是决定末端产品销售的最重要因素,在这样的市场中,专业型企业很难真正的建立起核心竞争优势和壁垒。不过在近几年里,一些代表了高端技术的末端产品正在走向市场化,这将有助于将一些真正具有实力的专业型末端企业从整体竞争力欠缺的末端企业群体中区别开来。从数据来看,冷水机组销售规模占比最大的约克在末端市场上同样占有了最多的份额,冷水机组销售规模越大末端产品的占有份额就越多这一理由同样适用于开利、特灵、麦克维尔在内的美资冷水机组企业。相反,国内企业中在末端市场上占有份额最高的是天加,而天加是一个典型的由末端产品切入市场,从而逐渐向主机渗透的企业。而由末端产品切入市场并逐渐向主机市场渗透,这同样是包括EK、盾安、国祥在内的传统冷水机组企业的策略选择。


(新闻来源:暖通空调资讯 作者:暖通空调资讯)


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